Prediction market traders wager millions on government shutdown length

Traders on prediction markets are betting the federal government shutdown will stretch beyond three weeks, with lawmakers still deadlocked on a funding plan and the Senate not scheduled to vote again until next Tuesday.

Traders on Kalshi give a 56% chance that the government shutdown will last just over 28 days. The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $5.5 million. 

About 71% of traders expect the government shutdown to last more than 20 days, while roughly 45% believe it will extend beyond 30 days.

Online prediction market Kalshi tracks how long traders expect the government shutdown will last.  (Kalshi)

HOPES DIM IN PREDICTION MARKETS AS TRADERS BET GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DRAG ON FOR WEEKS

Meanwhile, 96% of traders on Polymarket expect the shutdown to last a little over two weeks, with about $2.2 million wagered on the market.

Online prediction market Polymarket on government shutdown length.  (Polymarket)

TRUMP SAYS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN LAYOFFS ARE ‘UP TO’ DEMS AS STANDOFF CONTINUES

The federal government shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on Oct. 7, forcing agencies to send home workers in roles not considered essential.

Furloughs are usually short-lived: when Congress resolves a shutdown, federal workers typically return and are paid retroactively. In the past, such standoffs have amounted to political theater more than an economic crisis. 

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But this time, President Donald Trump has warned that some of the furloughed government employees might not be called back to work, turning a familiar showdown into a potential threat to the fragile job market.